Modelling through Design: a transdisciplinary PhD research on practices of representation in plausible and desirable climate futures.

 

Background and aim

Human-caused global warming is arguably one of the most pressing issues of our time. Over the last decades organizations like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have enhanced our understanding of the complex causalities involved in climate change. Next to a range of scientific reports, new policy instruments have been developed to allow policymakers and other agents of change to develop strategies and weigh measures to mitigate climate change. For instance, integrated assessment models are used to provide insight into the causal pathways that may lead to a specified future outcome such as the 2-degree target of the Paris agreement (e.g. Riahi et al., 2017). But models always have to fulfill their role in a particular context, mediating between science and politics. Notwithstanding the depth and breadth of these scientific achievements, simply providing scientific evidence will not automatically lead to collective action to mitigate climate change. Indeed, several authors have pointed at the importance of understanding the ‘range’ of analytic approaches needed to understand and forge a transition to a more sustainable society, often using various techniques in combination (Geels et al., 2016; Hajer and Pelzer, 2018).

While the importance of different analytical approaches is often emphasized, much less is known about how they can be synthesized or combined in order to achieve transformative change. A key element in policy-relevant information on climate change, is that it often involve elements about future development. Such information can be generated using model-based scenario development but there is a suite of other ´techniques of futuring´ that can be taken into account. The outcomes of these techniques can also be made available for the intended users in distinct ways.

This research project explores state-of-art modelling expertise, in particular with regard to Impact Assessment Modelling (IAM), in combination with distinct representational and experiental techniques from the worlds of art and design. The central “hunch” is that it is in this combination of approaches that we can find new ‘techniques of futuring’ (Hajer and Pelzer, forthcoming). While the focus is on productive ‘recombinations’ we start from the awareness that modeling always required additional representational techniques (such as expressing statistics in graphs, summarizing findings in particular documents or complex internet ‘one pagers’ to link modeling to concrete policy issues). The question is which sorts of combinations of representational techniques are now most fit for purpose, and how we explain the effects of particular combinations.

The aim of this PhD research is to:

• gain a better understanding of the characteristics, and benefits and pitfalls of Techniques of Futuring in climate modeling and the climate science – politics interface;
• gain a better understanding of effectively combinations of Techniques of Futuring rooted in climate modelling and art/design;
• based on this knowledge, develop transdisciplinary interventions in policy settings and reflect on this.

 

To answer these questions, we need an understanding of effectiveness of these techniques of futuring as well. There are different ways of defining effectiveness, including understanding the information, using the information to make decisions, or changing behavior / making decisions in response to the information (even independent of full understanding). Moreover, we know that information can be mediated more effectively when combined with a particular experience (‘experiental futuring’). In the research, we will define how to deal with these different dimensions – but also look how different tools are actually more suitable for the different dimensions.

 

Set up and organization

The research is envisaged to consist of four interrelated steps:

1. develop a conceptual perspective on the effectiveness of the combined deployment of art and modelling to mitigate climate change. Theoretical inspiration is likely to come from (but not restricted to): sustainability transitions (Geels et al., 2016) policy sciences (e.g. Hajer, 2009), experiential futures (e.g. Candy and Dunagan, 2017), and science and technology studies (e.g. Beckert, 2016; Jasanoff and Kim, 2015);
2. gather an empirical understanding of techniques of futuring based on combinations of modelling and art/design: this will likely involve interviews with policy makers, designers, artists and modelers, but could also involve other methods such as elicitation techniques;
3. conduct a historical case study into the effectiveness of the application of a climate modelling effort, which is expected to have had influenced on policy discourse and outcomes
4. develop an intervention: together with the team you will develop an intervention focusing on an existing policy problem. Given the transdisciplinary nature of this project, this problem will be developed in close interaction with societal stakeholders. The intervention will likely first be tested and subsequently executed in an existing policy setting.

This research position is shared by the Urban Futures Studio (UFS) and the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, both of the Faculty of Geosciences of Utrecht University. The daily supervisor is Dr. Peter Pelzer (UFS), the promotors are Prof. Maarten Hajer (UFS) and Prof. Detlef van Vuuren (Copernicus). In addition you will collaborate closely with an artist-in-residence, with whom you will develop the intervention. Moreover, the research is part of and funded by the CLIMAGINARIES-project, an intensive collaboration between Lund University (political science) and Warwick University (humanities).

We are looking for a scholar with an interest in and proven knowledge in several relevant areas such as the science of climate change, art, design, science-policy interfaces and modelling. You do not have to be an expert in one of these fields, but be open to learn about other disciplines. You have a sensitivity to politics and policy. You are familiar with transdisciplinary research methodologies and are willing to set up and evaluate interventions through different methods. Moreover, next to doing the deep academic work of a PhD study, you are interested in collaborating intensively with stakeholders from different backgrounds.

We offer a temporary position (1.0 FTE) for four years, with a one-year probation period. The gross monthly salary starts at €2,266 in the first year, and ends at €2,897 in the fourth year (scale P according to the Collective Labour Agreement Dutch Universities) gross per month for a full-time employment. Salaries are supplemented with a holiday bonus of 8 % and a year-end bonus of 8.3 % per year. We offer a pension scheme, (partly paid) parental leave, collective insurance schemes and flexible employment conditions (multiple choice model). More information is available at: working at Utrecht University.

Facilities for sports, childcare and a subsidized international school are available on our main campus, the Utrecht Science Park, located only 15 minutes away from the historical city centre of Utrecht. PhD training programmes are provided by the Graduate School of the Faculty of Geosciences and, if required, other Graduate Schools at Utrecht University and beyond. The working language of the institute is English.

A better future for everyone. This ambition motivates our scientists in executing their leading research and inspiring teaching. At Utrecht University, colleagues from various disciplines collaborate intensively towards major societal themes. Our focus is on Sustainability, Dynamics of Youth, Institutions for Open Societies, and Life Sciences.

 

Utrecht University has been ranked in the 2017 Academic Ranking of World Universities as the best university in the Netherlands, and as one of the leading research universities in Europe. Utrecht University’s sustainability research has the greatest citation impact worldwide according to a study conducted by Times Higher Education (2016). The city of Utrecht is one of the oldest cities in the Netherlands, with a charming old centre and an internationally oriented culture that is strongly influenced by its century-old university. Utrecht has been consistently ranked as one of the most livable cities in the Netherlands.

 

Utrecht University's Faculty of Geosciences offers education and research concerning the geosphere, biosphere, atmosphere and anthroposphere. With 3,400 students (BSc and MSc) and 720 staff, the Faculty is a strong and challenging organisation. The Faculty of Geosciences is organized in four departments: Earth Sciences, Human Geography & Urban & Regional Planning, Physical Geography, and the department of Sustainable Development. The research of this department is organized in the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development.  

 

The Copernicus Institute is part of the Faculty of Geosciences. The Copernicus Institute has been evaluated in a 2014 international review as the highest ranked research institute in environmental sciences in the Netherlands. Since then, the institute has intensified its efforts in maintaining its leading position, among others by investing in several new international faculty appointments and by developing new, internationally oriented teaching programmes.

The Urban Futures Studio (Faculty of Geosciences) is devoted to the study of positive urban futures and of ways to get there. We investigate what we call ‘Techniques of Futuring’. We are a transdisciplinary institute; we conduct empirical research on existing practices, but also help to initiate experiments. The UFS is convinced that new thinking starts in ‘crossovers’ between distinct disciplines, and in coalitions of new and old agents of change. See more at www.uu.nl/ufs