PhD Position on socio-economic effects of climate tipping points

As part of the EMBRACER project, you will use advanced models integrating our climate system to human behaviour to study potential scenarios of what could happen to Europe if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakens or tips.

Your job
As climate change is unfolding at an accelerating pace, there is an increasing concern about tipping points in the earth system. IPCC defines tipping points as “critical thresholds beyond which a system reorganizes, often abruptly and/or irreversibly”. In this proposal, we explore the socio-economic consequences of one such climate tipping point: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Europe.

The AMOC is a key driver of regional climate patterns. Specifically, a weakening of the AMOC would likely result in colder and drier winters in Europe, along with an increase in winter storms. Winter arctic sea ice would extend much further South than it does today, impacting for example food security and economic activities by restricting access to ports. Furthermore, a tipping AMOC would affect marine ecosystems which can regionally lead to biomass decline and consequently affect human livelihoods and economies that depend on these marine ecosystems. Interestingly, some studies suggest that a weakened AMOC could partially offset the effects of global warming in Europe, potentially resulting in localised economic gains. These contrasting findings highlight the current uncertainty surrounding the specific impacts of AMOC weakening on human societies.

In this PhD project, you will use models and data analysis techniques to explore socio-economic impacts of an AMOC weakening. You will get the opportunity to connect to the IMAGE model, an integrated assessment model that couples our climate system to human behaviour. In addition, you can use cost-benefit models to explore how an AMOC tipping point may influence financially optimal strategies, and/or agent-based models to explore how an AMOC tipping point will influence human behaviour. Within the team, there is expertise on (climate) tipping points, integrated assessment models, cost-benefit models and agent-based models. There is ample room for your ideas and initiative within this broad scope of coupling an AMOC tipping point (and potentially other climate tipping points) to human societies.

You are an inspiring and self-driven researcher with:

• a MSc in physics, applied mathematics, environmental sciences, computational science or a related field;
• excellent skills in scientific programming and numerical/statistical analysis of simulated and observed data;
• basic knowledge of environmental processes;
• excellent writing and communication skills;

We offer:

• the opportunity to work in and with a team of leading experts;
• a position for 4 years;
• a working week of 36-40 hours and a gross monthly salary between €2,901 and €3,707 (salary scale P under the Collective Labour Agreement for Dutch Universities (CAO NU));
• 8% holiday pay and 8.3% year-end bonus;
• a pension scheme, partially paid parental leave and flexible terms of employment based on the CAO NU.

In addition to the terms of employment laid down in the CAO NU, Utrecht University has a number of schemes and facilities of its own for employees. This includes schemes facilitating professional development, leave schemes and schemes for sports and cultural activities. We also offer access to additional employee benefits through our Terms of Employment Options Model. In this way, we encourage our employees to continue to invest in their growth. For more information, please visit Working at Utrecht University.

A better future for everyone. This ambition motivates our scientists in executing their leading research and inspiring teaching. At Utrecht University, the various disciplines collaborate intensively towards major strategic themes. Our focus is on Dynamics of Youth, Institutions for Open Societies, Life Sciences and Pathways to Sustainability. Sharing science, shaping tomorrow.

Utrecht University’s Faculty of Geosciences studies the Earth: from the Earth’s core to its surface, including man’s spatial and material utilisation of the Earth – always with a focus on sustainability and innovation. With 3,400 students (BSc and MSc) and 720 staff, the faculty is a strong and challenging organisation. The Faculty of Geosciences is organised in four Departments: Earth Sciences, Human Geography & Spatial Planning, Physical Geography, and Sustainable Development.

The position is embedded at the Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, in the Environmental Sciences group. The Copernicus Institute is the scientific institute for sustainability research and teaching of Utrecht University. The mission of the Environmental Sciences group is to understand the interactions between terrestrial ecosystems and global environmental change.

At EMBRACER we work at the very frontiers of knowledge on climate change, Earth’s climate system and climate feedbacks. Within its 10-year research programme, funded by NWO, EMBRACER brings together a wide range of world-leading climate experts with the aim to address existing uncertainties about climate feedbacks at the boundaries between oceans, land, ice, and atmosphere. Our interdisciplinary approach and state-of-the-art infrastructure will bring us forward in our understanding of the impact of climate feedbacks emerging over the next decades to centuries.