Despite many estimates available regarding mitigation potential in the forest sector, policy makers are still uncertain about how to tackle this, how to create incentives, what are trade-offs, and thus what are the feasible options. Core forest modelling tools have been successfully applied to European countries for up to 20 years now (e.g. EFISCEN, Carbon Budget Model). However, previous studies did not take a system perspective, e.g. the main focus was on the forest sink alone (i.e., omitting the mitigation of HWP and substitution effects), or were hardly comprehensive, i.e. possible trade-offs and the feasibility of specific mitigation options were not considered.
Further developing these models, and through specific climate-smart forestry scenarios, the candidate will develop concrete studies taking a comprehensive system perspective on the mitigation potential. To this aim, he/she will combine the higher resolution version of EFISCEN-space with additional tools incorporating the whole forest sector mitigation (including HWP and substitution effects), and considering potential trade-offs and the feasibility of the proposed actions.
The specific phases will include:
- Identifying specific climate smart forestry scenarios, taking into account the potential policy relevance, socio-economic trade-offs and possible triggers to stimulate mitigation.
- Implement a systems perspective in selected regions/countries in Europe, by combining the simulation of the climate smart forestry scenarios - through high resolution climate sensitive EFISCEN modelling - with additional modules/models to assess the mitigation associated with HWP/ substitution effects.
- Develop and implement approaches to explore, in selected case studies, the feasibility of the proposed measures - including considering economic routines that take into account land allocation and features like distance to roads, costs of measures, wood assortments etc . - and the most relevant synergies and trade-offs between mitigation, adaptation, and the provision of other services (e.g. biodiversity conservation).
Identify the most promising climate smart forestry scenarios in the various case studies examined, and develop recommendations to integrate the actions proposed into the traditional forest management tools.