The post-doc will model the linkage between wintering grounds, stopover sites and breeding grounds of pink-footed geese by using an agent-based simulation approach. Specifically, “false exclusions” are avoided by including all relevant mechanisms instead of attempting to make the most parsimonious model. The model will be based on the ALMaSS system that covers the Danish site. In this project, three new modules will be developed for this model, namely for the breeding grounds on Svalbard, for the two Norwegian stopover sites, and (possibly) for the wintering grounds in the Netherlands and Flanders.

When completed and tested as modules the whole model will be linked to provide a model of the whole annual cycle, using resource dynamics and weather conditions to drive demographic changes and predict pressure on the migratory behaviour. This will be done with a highly detailed agent-based simulation in all modelled locations, linked dynamically using a parallel computing approach. The strength of this approach is that it mechanistically links the spatio-temporal dynamics of resources to the ecology of the individual goose. Interactions and feedbacks emerge from the mechanisms within the model providing a complete system in which consequences of future changes in resources, climate or management can be evaluated.

The project is carried out in close co-operation with Aarhus University. The key to success is to test the models linking predictions to real world data. In this case, the project team has access to a large ringing data set in addition to tracking data collected by a PhD in this project, to test model performance.

The post-doc will also be involved in the extension of an existing depletion model to try and relate goose numbers to agricultural damage.

We are looking for

A creative, enthusiastic and ambitious researcher, with a PhD degree, who has:

• programming skills (preferably C++, or Java, Python, Matlab)
• experience with GIS and spatial data analysis
• flexibility (willing to work abroad for a few months)
• good communication and writing abilities (in English)

Fixed-term contract: 1 year.

We offer

• a temporary appointment, initially for 1 year and upon satisfactory performance to be prolonged for a maximum of 3 years total
• a salary depending on work experience, scale 10, Collective Agreement for Dutch Universities (CAO Nederlandse Universiteiten), plus 8% holiday pay and a year-end bonus
• an extensive package of fringe benefits

Project background

Goose populations are growing world-wide as a response to changes in agriculture. This gives rise to more and more conflicts with humans, and a call for management programmes. A flyway-based adaptive management plan is operational for pink-footed geese that breed on Svalbard, and winter Denmark, the Netherlands and Flanders. This population is unique in using some restricted sites along the flyway in the course of its annual cycle. In order to be able to predict future population developments, the post-doc will extend an existing agent-based model to simulate the migration of the geese to and from the breeding grounds. This model simulates the geese and their competitors (mainly barnacle geese), farmers and hunters. Tracks of geese will be used to test the model. The post-doc will use the model to predict future population size, spread and migratory behaviour of the geese in response to changes in climate, hunting and farming, and abundance of competing goose species. The post-doc will also contribute to the development of a more general approach to relate goose numbers to agricultural damage.

The project is funded by the Netherlands Polar Programme (NPP) of the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).